CapitalTime

Articles on investing and capital management, with a quantitative focus.


Big Picture

General thoughts and reflections on investing and the current market.


2023-10-20

Why Invest in Bonds?

Bonds have performed very poorly in the last 3 years, with negative returns in 2021, 2022, and 2023 so far. The recent terrible performance... #bigpicture

2023-07-18

Don't Believe the Forecasts

Analysts and economists frequently appear in the media, giving their forecasts for all kinds of things - recessions, inflation, interest rates... #bigpicture

2023-01-11

Listen to the Federal Reserve

These comments are about the US Federal Reserve (or "Fed") and their policy interest rate. The Bank of Canada usually follows... #bigpicture

2022-12-27

Why You Should Not Use My Risk Parity Portfolio

I post about my risk parity portfolio frequently on this personal blog or investing journal, because it's how I invest... #bigpicture

2022-09-09

Is This a Market Bottom?

Since we just had a large drawdown (23% drop in stocks), could this be a market bottom and the start of a new rally?... #bigpicture

2022-07-03

Handling Market Declines

The markets have been uncooperative so far this year. As both stocks and bonds decline sharply, I've been reminding myself of a few things... #bigpicture

2022-05-06

Bonds Are a Good Investment

Researchers have updated (and corrected) historical stock and bond data, providing a more complete picture of historical returns... #bigpicture

2021-07-24

Investing With Crash Protection

I have two distinct strategies for investing while also having some protection from crashes and extreme volatility. One is Bullsignals... #bigpicture

2021-05-02

Time To Invest In Bitcoin?

No. I already committed myself to a specific portfolio strategy, based on extensive research and modelling. My portfolio is based on... #bigpicture

2020-11-22

Stocks Are Always Scary

COVID-19 certainly qualifies as a true catastrophe, but it won't be the last stock market disaster. As I pointed out a year ago... #bigpicture

2020-09-11

Indexing is Not Passive

Index investing has become more popular in recent years. For example, someone can hold an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 index ... #bigpicture

2020-08-03

What Happens Next?

Market analysts and commentators love to make appearances in the media and share their predictions about what will happen next. Often, ... #bigpicture

2020-07-25

Mid Year Report Card

I use a number of different investment strategies, each covered in a different section of this web site. The "top level" asset allocation... #bigpicture

2020-03-22

Zoom Out to 1 Year

Lately, daily volatility in markets has been extreme. To see things more clearly, I think it helps to "zoom out" and look at the longer term... #bigpicture

2020-03-07

Mild TSX Correction So Far

Would it surprise you to hear that this has been a mild stock correction so far? For Canada's benchmark index, this current selloff... #bigpicture

2020-02-27

COVID-19 and Stocks

Posting an article like this one is risky, because at some point in the future, the outcome of COVID-19 will be known... #bigpicture

2019-11-19

Trouble Investing New Money

Are you having trouble investing new money? Are concerns about an overvalued stock market preventing you from making purchases?... #bigpicture

2019-11-05

I am not a Tortoise

According to Wikipedia, most tortoise species can live to around 100 years, with some living over 150 years... #bigpicture

2019-10-22

Backtesting with the Portfolio Visualizer

One of my favourite investment-related web sites is the Portfolio Visualizer, a collection of analysis tools that can be used to study the behaviour... #bigpicture

2019-08-13

Choosing My Asset Allocation

I've described some details of risk parity, but I should explain how I arrived at my PRP asset allocation. There is no ideal single asset allocation... #bigpicture

2019-07-17

I don't know what the market will do

I don't know how the economy will behave, if we'll get runaway inflation, and if stocks will continue to do well. #bigpicture

2019-06-07

Investment goals

Here, I describe my own investment goals to provide context for the articles I write... #bigpicture

2019-06-05

We are shaped by our experiences

Investing can mean different things to different people, and not everyone has the same priorities... #bigpicture