CapitalTime
Articles on investing and capital management, with a quantitative focus.
XIU.top Historical Performance
Historical performance for my XIU.top method was calculated by using financial statements for iShares XIU (formerly iUnits i60) back to the year 2000, and then strictly applying the methodology to simulate portfolio updates. Note that this is not a static buy and hold portfolio.
Ignoring trade fees, the historical performance for XIU.top and regular XIU is shown below:
| Year | XIU.top | XIU |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | -5.62% | -14.86% |
| 2002 | -7.14% | -14.07% |
| 2003 | 14.11% | 25.19% |
| 2004 | 17.51% | 13.60% |
| 2005 | 34.33% | 25.94% |
| 2006 | 12.81% | 18.92% |
| 2007 | 15.54% | 10.93% |
| 2008 | -20.21% | -31.08% |
| 2009 | 27.35% | 31.45% |
| 2010 | 8.35% | 13.62% |
| 2011 | 7.14% | -9.24% |
| 2012 | 6.14% | 7.88% |
| 2013 | 16.53% | 13.03% |
| 2014 | 21.43% | 12.04% |
| 2015 | -0.16% | -7.91% |
| 2016 | 20.51% | 21.14% |
| 2017 | 13.09% | 9.57% |
| 2018 | -4.80% | -7.72% |
| 2019 | 17.49% | 21.72% |
| 2020 | 1.73% | 5.45% |
| 2021 | 25.13% | 27.90% |
| 2022 | 1.14% | -6.36% |
| CAGR | 9.3% | 6.3% |
XIU performance is from Blackrock and Yahoo finance, and individual stock performance for XIU.top comes from Stockcharts.
Result
For the 22 years shown, XIU.top would have returned 9.3% annualized versus 6.3% for XIU.
In 2022, a very bad year for markets, XIU.top had a positive return and beat the index by 7.5%. Very few equities had positive returns in 2022, so this was a pleasant surprise.
Looking Forward
Keep in mind, historical performance is theoretical. There is likely some hindsight bias in this method, which could make the method look better than it really is.
Going forward, I expect XIU.top to perform similarly to XIU, and hopefully a bit better. Equal sector weightings reduces vulnerability to any single sector, which is a feature I like.
It's very possible that XIU will be the stronger performer going forward. It is a very good ETF.
Diversify!
Note that this is only part of my overall equity allocation, and the equities are part of a more diversified portfolio.
— Jem Berkes