CapitalTime

Articles on investing and capital management, with a quantitative focus.

Scaling down my market timing

2019-12-30

Although my BullSignals market timing has given reasonable results for a few years, I've decided to scale down the dollar amount deployed in this strategy.

Until now, 50% of my equities were bought and sold with this method, and this feels like too much. I think I've been lucky so far that I didn't get badly whipsawed by the market. I was also lucky that the 2018 selloff worked perfectly with this method.

I'm reducing the dollars deployed in this strategy down to 20% of my equities. This seems more appropriate for experimental market timing that might potentially be worthless.

In other words, this is a shift towards more indexing and less technical trading.

Wouldn't it be funny if the stock market crashes now, and BullSignals catches it. Boy would my face be red.